Moody’s likely to downgrade Pakistan

By Aadil Mustafa Jillani

Investment is recognized as the critical tool for economic growth in developing nations which creates opportunities for their better tomorrow. We as nation are very unfortunate that the hopes of masses for better tomorrow dilutes by every passing day as not a single socio economic reform is being introduced neither by Federal nor by Provincial Govts during last four years. Economy of Pakistan has never been in a difficult situation as it is today. Trade deficit up by 37% to $19 bln, C/A deficit shoot up to $3.7 bln, fiscal deficit increased to Rs.1.2 trillion expected to touch historic levels of Rs.1.5 trillion in FY12 which will be above 7.5% of GDP and last but not the least public debt crosses Rs.13 trn. Pakistan’s external sector position has exposed to certain risks for investors, as a result deteriorates macro-economic dynamics of the country.

Foreign and domestic investment in Pakistan due to power crisis & deteriorated law and order situation and the default of sovereign guarantees by Govt regarding IPPs payments shaken investors' confidence drastically. As a result net foreign investment in Pakistan during 11MFY12 declined by massive 63% to

$679 mln which were more than $8 bln in a single year witnessed in FY07. Govt should be concerned regarding quality of investment in Pakistan not just “any kind of investment”. We are in dire need of quality investment in productive sectors like power, infrastructure, and mining & fertilizer sector that adds value in national income & create employment opportunities for rapidly growing human resource in Pakistan. The consistent economic policies, urgent economic reforms & improved governance can bring a real difference in making productive investments.

Moody's expressed its concerns over economy of Pakistan highlighted political instability, rising trade deficit & repayments to the IMF. Since PKR depreciated by more than 10% in FY12, C/A deficit stands at

$3.7 bln and SBP reserves depleted by $1 bln in just 3 weeks pushed overall foreign exchange reserves

to $15.04 bln. Furthermore Pakistan has to pay $ 3.09 bln to IMF including loans and interest in FY13. Most importantly not only the earning capacity (export revenue) in fact repaying capacity of Pakistan has also been reduced significantly which adds fuel to the fire & increasing uncertainty for the economy.

Repayments to IMF (in $ mln)

Period Principal Interest Total

FY12	1,203.0	188.5	1,391.5
FY13	2,955.6	138.8	3,094.3
FY14	3,383.7	55.9	3,439.5
FY15	1,338.9	15.8	1,354.7
FY16	59.4	1.0	60.4
Total	8,940.6	400.0	9,340.4
source:SBP

So in my view, Pakistan likely to downgrade by Moody’s due to deterioration in macro-economic indicators of the country. It will further depreciate currency, increase uncertainty & appreciate domestic in Pakistan. Economy always suffers during the election year as political influence disturbs structural macro-economic framework in any country & Pakistan is no exception.

Pakistan is not just facing risks internally due to political & economic instability in fact global economic slowdown along with Euorozone crisis also diluting external gains like export earnings due to poor demand & rising concerns over sustainability of remittances. The EU is the biggest economic hub in the global economy and is the largest export market for countries in the developing world. One can analyze the sensitivity of the EURO crises from the fact that, top 3 European economies including Germany, France & UK growing below 1% GDP while avg un-employment rate stands at 7%.Out of 16 Euro nations, five countries have negative GDP growth. According to the study by Overseas Development Institute, Euorozone crisis will cost world's poorest countries $238bn.

The global recessionary wave is very serious to all the economies as per IMF, WB & other international organizations and it will linger on in upcoming years. Fiscal re-union, massive economic reforms & consistent strategic action are the only answer to global economic slowdown. As far as Pakistan is concerned, whole nation has to face the cost of election year which will jeopardize the concrete strategic framework for economy & will further deteriorate basic principles of economy.

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