The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) 100-share index lost value in November 2011, albeit with a marginal decline of 2.8 percent on monthly basis, but the value erosion doubled in dollar terms (5.5 percent on monthly basis) during the month due to the rupee depreciation of 2.6 percent against the greenback.
Continuing with still high volatility marked with one of the lowest volumes years so far, Pakistan’s equities headed southwards especially last week amid severe noise not only on home’s political canvas but also on the latest event of a ‘friendly fire’ from the so-called ally, USA, of the country, killing a bunch of military personnel of the latter.
Following such unprovoked strike, the government responded with seize on NATO supplies while ordered the USA out of the airbase at Shamsi. This joggled investors at both equities and forex markets resulting in a speedy drainage in their respective values. In addition, fear of the commencement of a random audit by the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) (from December 11 onwards) with respect to capital gains tax’s filing also kept investor away from equities.
As a result, average market volume stood at a significantly lower level at $34.2 million during November 2011, down 41.7 percent on monthly basis (last decade’s average at $178 million) while it was down 39.6 percent on yearly basis. Shaking macro scenario of the economy coupled with only negative news flow from some of the key sectors like fertilizers (price declines with increased gas shortages) and banks (rising non-performing loans and asset quality concerns) served as major dampeners. Only positive development on the E&Ps front (Nashpa flows and Zin block excitement) supported the KSE 100-share index to an extent. The KSE 100-share index also declined by 2.7 percent on yearly basis in November 2011 (5.2 percent in dollar terms) settling year-to-date (YTD) return to -4.1 percent, while its value erosion in dollar terms now cumulates to over 10 percent YTD.
In regional perspective, after lagging behind world markets last month, Pakistan equities stood above average regional market returns in November 2011 (where regional as well as world equities lost values as recession and debt-default fears furthered in the US and eurozone economies, respectively). Though, below its benchmark Frontier Market Index, Pakistan equities yielded –5 percent on monthly basis against global equity return average of –7 percent on monthly basis. The KSE 100-share index’s YTD return is still way better than not only its benchmark, Frontier index (down 21 percent YTD), but also other regional peers and other world benchmark indices (MSCI Emerging –19 percent YTD).
As far as foreign equity flows go, Pakistan equities faced slower pace in foreign outflows with one of the lowest total in the Asia Pacific region during November 2011 (with only $4.2 million against regional outflows of $5.7 billion during the month). It is worth mentioning that, on a YTD basis, Pakistan equities stand with smallest size of outflows with only $102 million among regional countries experiencing foreign outflows in equities while regional equities combined stood with a massive outflows of $16.4 billion during this period. On historical patterns, the month of December has been one of the most volatile months of the year (may be due to book maintenance by the institutions) with last decade’s December average return of only 2 percent (ranging wide between –36 percent to +18 percent on monthly basis). However, notwithstanding low average returns during last decade, the KSE 100-share index had returned 7 percent on monthly basis during December last year.
With no further policy rate cut provided by the central bank in its latest MPS, recent deeper strains in Pak-US ties, rising concerns on the rupee value also in the wake of larger-than-budgeted balance of payment (marked by higher oil import payments amid increased gas shortages, slower exports, limited foreign aid/funding and significant International Monetary Fund-loan repayment from February 2012 onwards), equities are expected to remain sluggish largely in the short-term. Equities may continue to suffer until and unless a positive development, either on CGT issue or financing product (MTS), takes place in the mean time, which would encourage increased volumes and thus price discovery. (Daily Times)
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